Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase19%
$35.0M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3182%

$12.2M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1895%

$1.8M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3142%

$39.7M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change22%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%62%
4.0%24%

$7.1M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3132%
October 319%

$78.6K Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase30%

$418.4K Vol.monthly

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$232.8K Vol.21 days left

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$8.9M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Iran 5+ times>99%
Pipeline>99%

$45.4K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$337.8K Vol.Ended

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

15%chance

$203.9K Vol.18 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$662.8K Vol.2 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$2.4M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

$1.8M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%
November 30, 202632%

$703.4K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3124%
October 314%

$38.7K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

120-13930%
140-15930%

$44.4K Vol.daily

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

12%chance

$74.1K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.0+92%

$9.8K Vol.weekly

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.4M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+28%
160-17914%

$23.1K Vol.daily

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202745%
Pete Hegseth13%

$106.0K Vol.annual

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%87%
↓ 36%84%

$4.8K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
160-17920%

$4.4K Vol.daily

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?