Geopolitics

80 events

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1597%
- October 1794%
$12.8M Vol.monthly

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 1893%

$34.7M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3165%
December 3139%

$40.0M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.5M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%
October 311%

$76.1M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi42%
Jared Kushner40%

$1.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.0M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia18%
China10%

$83.5K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1596%
October 1692%

$476.6K Vol.

$595.8K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3146%
November 3033%

$1.4M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$9.0M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3027%

$3.1M Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202718%
December 3111%

$4.9M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3132%
November 3024%

$1.9M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202745%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$298.0K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro70%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$192.0K Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$260.1K Vol.20 days left

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 480%
October 1180%

$884.1K Vol.monthly

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3130%
October 317%

$189.1K Vol.

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1687%
October 1877%

$291.1K Vol.monthly

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$233.6K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT30%
CATL24%

$506.3K Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 295%
October 1295%

$42.6K Vol.monthly

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland18%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$792.3K Vol.47 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$175.7K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3176%
November 3060%

$546.0K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

$497.6K Vol.8 months left

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

12%chance

$216.6K Vol.17 days left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$97.0K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 3110%

$362.9K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

6%chance

$843.4K Vol.17 days left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3134%
November 3033%

$335.5K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$380.5K Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3142%

$112.6K Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3194%
October 1591%

$30.4K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

12%chance

$167.7K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$110.9K Vol.17 days left

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3192%
October 1587%

$22.9K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$403.4K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Gadi Eizenkot18%

$63.0K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3121%
October 317%

$29.7K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202718%
December 31, 20268%

$257.9K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

22%chance

$468.0K Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3114%
October 314%

$60.3K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202639%
November 30, 202632%

$707.0K Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 319%

$10.2M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$40.0K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3072%
October 3150%

$8.2K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$54.1K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202739%

$2.0M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Tally Gotliv13%

$49.3K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 318%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Geopolitics

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Netanyahu out by...?

China x Japan military clash before 2027?