Geopolitics

40 events

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 12>99%
- October 1596%
$11.3M Vol.monthly

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US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1595%

$1.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$999.8K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$73.8M Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot46%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.8M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3144%

$39.4M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3125%
October 316%

$8.8M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3185%

$34.1M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%
October 311%

$75.9M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$16.9M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$43.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202748%
Netanyahu - Israel PM29%

$997.9K Vol.annual

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202756%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

23%chance

$164.4K Vol.19 days left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$111.9K Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.2M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3148%
November 3041%

$300.0K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3111%

$27.2M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3118%
October 318%

$216.9K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

4%chance

$351.2K Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$25.3K Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.6M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$22.7K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.2M Vol.19 days left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20263%

$28.8M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3121%
October 315%

$7.3M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance

$759.4K Vol.49 days left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3178%
November 3060%

$513.0K Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$148.5K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

6%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 13>99%
October 1498%

$201.1K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$172.0K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$45.2K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left