All markets
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
View all outcomes in this event17%chance
- Yes16.5%
Outcomes
- Yes17%
16.5¢ per share
- No84%
83.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 16.5¢Spread 1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 16¢ | 94,750.58 | $15,160.09 |
| 15¢ | 254,885.39 | $38,232.81 |
| 14¢ | 552,274.44 | $77,318.42 |
| 13¢ | 146,382.98 | $19,029.79 |
| 12¢ | 46,777.9 | $5,613.35 |
| 11¢ | 25,859.94 | $2,844.59 |
| 10¢ | 37,291.17 | $3,729.12 |
| 9¢ | 16,926 | $1,523.34 |
| 8¢ | 37,805.9 | $3,024.47 |
| 7¢ | 53,932.59 | $3,775.28 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 17¢ | 145,480.06 | $24,731.61 |
| 18¢ | 160,704.17 | $28,926.75 |
| 19¢ | 50,946.03 | $9,679.75 |
| 20¢ | 4,079.79 | $815.96 |
| 21¢ | 6,662.96 | $1,399.22 |
| 22¢ | 2,447.8 | $538.52 |
| 23¢ | 5,365.74 | $1,234.12 |
| 24¢ | 8,865.13 | $2,127.63 |
| 25¢ | 13,076.29 | $3,269.07 |
| 26¢ | 8,298.77 | $2,157.68 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.