All markets
Plague pandemic in 2026?
View all outcomes in this event2%chance
- Yes2.4%
Outcomes
- Yes2%
2.4¢ per share
- No98%
97.7¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 2.4¢Spread 0.1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3¢ | 47 | $1.08 |
| 2.1¢ | 799.67 | $16.79 |
| 2¢ | 248.1 | $4.96 |
| 1.9¢ | 2,015 | $38.29 |
| 1.8¢ | 4,010.07 | $72.18 |
| 1.7¢ | 10,129.42 | $172.20 |
| 1.6¢ | 12,027.57 | $192.44 |
| 1.5¢ | 14,737.07 | $221.06 |
| 1.4¢ | 10.1 | $0.14 |
| 1.2¢ | 843.4 | $10.12 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4¢ | 555 | $13.32 |
| 2.5¢ | 6,852.13 | $171.30 |
| 2.6¢ | 1,332.26 | $34.64 |
| 2.7¢ | 1,111 | $30.00 |
| 2.8¢ | 5,501 | $154.03 |
| 2.9¢ | 13,139.5 | $381.05 |
| 3¢ | 20,005 | $600.15 |
| 3.1¢ | 97 | $3.01 |
| 3.2¢ | 200 | $6.40 |
| 3.3¢ | 5.49 | $0.18 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.