All markets
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
2%chance
- Yes1.7%
Outcomes
- Yes2%
1.7¢ per share
- No98%
98.4¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 1.7¢Spread 1.3¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1¢ | 14.8 | $0.15 |
| 0.9¢ | 99.99 | $0.90 |
| 0.7¢ | 943 | $6.60 |
| 0.6¢ | 2,500 | $15.00 |
| 0.5¢ | 1,800 | $9.00 |
| 0.4¢ | 5,000 | $20.00 |
| 0.3¢ | 336 | $1.01 |
| 0.2¢ | 11,105 | $22.21 |
| 0.1¢ | 18,208 | $18.21 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3¢ | 15.1 | $0.35 |
| 2.4¢ | 5,409.65 | $129.83 |
| 2.8¢ | 104.88 | $2.94 |
| 3.1¢ | 19.46 | $0.60 |
| 3.2¢ | 200 | $6.40 |
| 3.3¢ | 70 | $2.31 |
| 3.5¢ | 35 | $1.23 |
| 3.8¢ | 35 | $1.33 |
| 4.8¢ | 80 | $3.84 |
| 4.9¢ | 72.51 | $3.55 |
Rules
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.