All markets
Plague pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
- Yes2.1%
Outcomes
- Yes2%
2.1¢ per share
- No98%
98.0¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 2.1¢Spread 0.1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2¢ | 3,188.49 | $63.77 |
| 1.9¢ | 1,674.91 | $31.82 |
| 1.8¢ | 4,010.07 | $72.18 |
| 1.7¢ | 10,145.87 | $172.48 |
| 1.6¢ | 12,010.1 | $192.16 |
| 1.5¢ | 24,737.07 | $371.06 |
| 1.4¢ | 3,010.1 | $42.14 |
| 1.2¢ | 1,875.39 | $22.50 |
| 1.1¢ | 929 | $10.22 |
| 1¢ | 1,520.1 | $15.20 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.1¢ | 907.88 | $19.07 |
| 2.2¢ | 5,396.14 | $118.72 |
| 2.3¢ | 5,395.98 | $124.11 |
| 2.4¢ | 1,111 | $26.66 |
| 2.5¢ | 8,580.57 | $214.51 |
| 2.6¢ | 1,349.65 | $35.09 |
| 2.7¢ | 1,111 | $30.00 |
| 2.8¢ | 2,161 | $60.51 |
| 2.9¢ | 15,639.5 | $453.55 |
| 3¢ | 20,005 | $600.15 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.