All markets
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?
4%chance
- Yes3.5%
Outcomes
- Yes4%
3.5¢ per share
- No96%
96.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 3.5¢Spread 2.6¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.2¢ | 40 | $0.88 |
| 2.1¢ | 33.95 | $0.71 |
| 1.5¢ | 16.11 | $0.24 |
| 1.4¢ | 258 | $3.61 |
| 1.3¢ | 5.64 | $0.07 |
| 1.2¢ | 170 | $2.04 |
| 1.1¢ | 534.69 | $5.88 |
| 1¢ | 1,290 | $12.90 |
| 0.6¢ | 34.23 | $0.21 |
| 0.5¢ | 247.81 | $1.24 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8¢ | 30 | $1.44 |
| 4.9¢ | 63 | $3.09 |
| 5¢ | 200 | $10.00 |
| 5.5¢ | 30 | $1.65 |
| 5.8¢ | 170 | $9.86 |
| 5.9¢ | 20 | $1.18 |
| 6.1¢ | 286 | $17.45 |
| 6.3¢ | 30 | $1.89 |
| 6.9¢ | 20.01 | $1.38 |
| 8.3¢ | 500 | $41.50 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.