All markets
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
4%chance
- Yes4.1%
Outcomes
- Yes4%
4.3¢ per share
- No96%
95.7¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.2¢Spread 4.7¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1.8¢ | 6.61 | $0.12 |
| 1.6¢ | 70 | $1.12 |
| 1.5¢ | 77.13 | $1.16 |
| 1.3¢ | 15.35 | $0.20 |
| 1.2¢ | 52 | $0.62 |
| 1.1¢ | 93.19 | $1.03 |
| 1¢ | 8 | $0.08 |
| 0.2¢ | 183.32 | $0.37 |
| 0.1¢ | 780 | $0.78 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5¢ | 3.07 | $0.20 |
| 7.8¢ | 50 | $3.90 |
| 12.5¢ | 400 | $50.00 |
| 14¢ | 18.18 | $2.55 |
| 28¢ | 21.99 | $6.16 |
| 34.4¢ | 8 | $2.75 |
| 37¢ | 400 | $148.00 |
| 49¢ | 200 | $98.00 |
| 59¢ | 20 | $11.80 |
| 59.8¢ | 149 | $89.10 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.