All markets
Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?
4%chance
- Yes4%
Outcomes
- Yes4%
4.0¢ per share
- No96%
96.0¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4¢Spread 3.6¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.2¢ | 9.77 | $0.21 |
| 2¢ | 10.84 | $0.22 |
| 1.9¢ | 20 | $0.38 |
| 1.7¢ | 20 | $0.34 |
| 1.3¢ | 12.59 | $0.16 |
| 1.2¢ | 20 | $0.24 |
| 1.1¢ | 465.34 | $5.12 |
| 1¢ | 822 | $8.22 |
| 0.8¢ | 12.08 | $0.10 |
| 0.7¢ | 20 | $0.14 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8¢ | 170 | $9.86 |
| 5.9¢ | 60 | $3.54 |
| 6¢ | 80 | $4.80 |
| 6.1¢ | 20 | $1.22 |
| 7¢ | 21 | $1.47 |
| 7.7¢ | 40 | $3.08 |
| 8¢ | 20 | $1.60 |
| 60.7¢ | 12 | $7.28 |
| 60.9¢ | 20 | $12.18 |
| 61¢ | 2,564.1 | $1,564.10 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative. A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify. If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held. The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.