All markets
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
4%chance
- Yes4.2%
Outcomes
- Yes4%
4.3¢ per share
- No96%
95.8¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.2¢Spread 5.5¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4¢ | 6.47 | $0.09 |
| 1.3¢ | 50 | $0.65 |
| 1.1¢ | 295.21 | $3.25 |
| 1¢ | 730 | $7.30 |
| 0.5¢ | 27.99 | $0.14 |
| 0.4¢ | 206.79 | $0.83 |
| 0.3¢ | 213.42 | $0.64 |
| 0.2¢ | 144.78 | $0.29 |
| 0.1¢ | 3,128.8 | $3.13 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 6.9¢ | 30 | $2.07 |
| 7¢ | 53.76 | $3.76 |
| 7.5¢ | 80 | $6.00 |
| 8.4¢ | 20 | $1.68 |
| 8.6¢ | 20 | $1.72 |
| 14¢ | 300 | $42.00 |
| 72.4¢ | 7 | $5.07 |
| 72.5¢ | 20 | $14.50 |
| 72.6¢ | 29.19 | $21.19 |
| 74¢ | 40 | $29.60 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries. An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.