81%chance
81.0¢ per share
19.0¢ per share
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 80¢ | 28.29 | $22.63 |
| 78¢ | 602.69 | $470.10 |
| 77¢ | 155.18 | $119.49 |
| 76¢ | 134 | $101.84 |
| 74¢ | 10.81 | $8.00 |
| 73¢ | 21.82 | $15.93 |
| 64¢ | 80 | $51.20 |
| 59¢ | 120.3 | $70.98 |
| 57¢ | 6 | $3.42 |
| 56¢ | 8.92 | $5.00 |
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 82¢ | 299.54 | $245.62 |
| 83¢ | 405.97 | $336.96 |
| 84¢ | 213.4 | $179.26 |
| 88¢ | 20 | $17.60 |
| 89¢ | 20 | $17.80 |
| 90¢ | 403.94 | $363.55 |
| 91¢ | 155 | $141.05 |
| 92¢ | 80 | $73.60 |
| 93¢ | 343.08 | $319.06 |
| 94¢ | 250 | $235.00 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.