13%chance
13.0¢ per share
87.0¢ per share
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 12¢ | 122.25 | $14.67 |
| 11¢ | 451.5 | $49.67 |
| 10¢ | 205 | $20.50 |
| 7¢ | 71.4 | $5.00 |
| 6¢ | 83.3 | $5.00 |
| 3¢ | 120 | $3.60 |
| 2¢ | 200 | $4.00 |
| 1¢ | 40 | $0.40 |
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 14¢ | 151 | $21.14 |
| 15¢ | 493.67 | $74.05 |
| 16¢ | 200 | $32.00 |
| 21¢ | 49.01 | $10.29 |
| 22¢ | 10.25 | $2.26 |
| 23¢ | 722.41 | $166.15 |
| 24¢ | 679.11 | $162.99 |
| 25¢ | 184.21 | $46.05 |
| 27¢ | 340 | $91.80 |
| 28¢ | 370 | $103.60 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.