2%chance
2.2¢ per share
97.8¢ per share
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1¢ | 430 | $0.43 |
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3¢ | 150 | $6.45 |
| 4.4¢ | 32.36 | $1.42 |
| 4.5¢ | 50 | $2.25 |
| 6.9¢ | 230.54 | $15.91 |
| 7¢ | 7.82 | $0.55 |
| 7.3¢ | 51 | $3.72 |
| 10.2¢ | 10 | $1.02 |
| 10.3¢ | 20.03 | $2.06 |
| 12.3¢ | 28.29 | $3.48 |
| 12.6¢ | 499.77 | $62.97 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.