<1%chance
0.1¢ per share
99.9¢ per share
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1¢ | 149.92 | $0.15 |
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2¢ | 194.78 | $0.39 |
| 1¢ | 169.99 | $1.70 |
| 1.1¢ | 34.03 | $0.37 |
| 1.2¢ | 22.95 | $0.28 |
| 1.8¢ | 20.07 | $0.36 |
| 1.9¢ | 42.12 | $0.80 |
| 2¢ | 50.2 | $1.00 |
| 3¢ | 41 | $1.23 |
| 4.9¢ | 31.2 | $1.53 |
| 10.2¢ | 10 | $1.02 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.