All markets
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
97%chance
- Yes96.8%
Outcomes
- Yes97%
96.8¢ per share
- No3%
3.2¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 96.8¢Spread 6¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 93.8¢ | 130 | $121.94 |
| 93.7¢ | 60 | $56.22 |
| 92.9¢ | 100 | $92.90 |
| 92.6¢ | 28.08 | $26.00 |
| 87.1¢ | 41.53 | $36.17 |
| 87¢ | 150 | $130.50 |
| 86¢ | 151.19 | $130.02 |
| 41¢ | 5 | $2.05 |
| 26¢ | 10 | $2.60 |
| 3.4¢ | 600 | $20.40 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 99.8¢ | 638.09 | $636.81 |
| 99.9¢ | 281 | $280.72 |
Rules
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF). This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.