All markets
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
35%chance
- Yes34.6%
Outcomes
- Yes35%
34.6¢ per share
- No65%
65.3¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 34.6¢Spread 24.1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 22.6¢ | 25.67 | $5.80 |
| 22.3¢ | 8.96 | $2.00 |
| 22.1¢ | 9.96 | $2.20 |
| 19.1¢ | 5 | $0.96 |
| 19¢ | 65 | $12.35 |
| 18.9¢ | 60 | $11.34 |
| 18.8¢ | 200 | $37.60 |
| 18¢ | 209.22 | $37.66 |
| 8.8¢ | 5.43 | $0.48 |
| 8.7¢ | 60 | $5.22 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 46.7¢ | 105.37 | $49.21 |
| 46.8¢ | 216.47 | $101.31 |
| 84¢ | 6.25 | $5.25 |
| 89¢ | 9.09 | $8.09 |
| 91.5¢ | 5 | $4.58 |
| 92.9¢ | 8.23 | $7.65 |
| 93¢ | 14.28 | $13.28 |
| 95.1¢ | 24 | $22.82 |
| 96¢ | 25 | $24.00 |
| 97.7¢ | 5.43 | $5.31 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".