All markets
Will Kash Patel be arrested before 2027?
2%chance
- Yes1.8%
Outcomes
- Yes2%
1.8¢ per share
- No98%
98.2¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 1.8¢Spread 1.6¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1¢ | 30 | $0.30 |
| 0.9¢ | 177.7 | $1.60 |
| 0.3¢ | 240 | $0.72 |
| 0.2¢ | 400 | $0.80 |
| 0.1¢ | 19,258.89 | $19.26 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.6¢ | 30 | $0.78 |
| 2.7¢ | 116 | $3.13 |
| 2.8¢ | 65.18 | $1.83 |
| 3¢ | 315.4 | $9.46 |
| 3.4¢ | 178 | $6.05 |
| 3.5¢ | 2,000 | $70.00 |
| 4¢ | 312.5 | $12.50 |
| 4.7¢ | 5,400 | $253.80 |
| 9¢ | 21.72 | $1.95 |
| 10¢ | 20 | $2.00 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.