All markets
Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?
2%chance
- Yes1.8%
Outcomes
- Yes2%
1.8¢ per share
- No98%
98.2¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 1.8¢Spread 0.9¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4¢ | 50 | $0.70 |
| 1.3¢ | 150.1 | $1.95 |
| 1.2¢ | 53 | $0.64 |
| 1¢ | 1,292.66 | $12.93 |
| 0.7¢ | 220 | $1.54 |
| 0.5¢ | 800 | $4.00 |
| 0.4¢ | 2,240 | $8.96 |
| 0.3¢ | 1,666.67 | $5.00 |
| 0.2¢ | 2,900 | $5.80 |
| 0.1¢ | 31,552.44 | $31.55 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3¢ | 100 | $2.30 |
| 2.4¢ | 206.11 | $4.95 |
| 2.5¢ | 406.12 | $10.15 |
| 2.6¢ | 130 | $3.38 |
| 2.7¢ | 963 | $26.00 |
| 2.8¢ | 130 | $3.64 |
| 3¢ | 2,006.18 | $60.19 |
| 3.3¢ | 1,213.65 | $40.05 |
| 3.5¢ | 2,000 | $70.00 |
| 4.1¢ | 5,000 | $205.00 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.