All markets
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?
5%chance
- Yes4.5%
Outcomes
- Yes5%
4.5¢ per share
- No96%
95.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.5¢Spread 0.6¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2¢ | 24 | $1.01 |
| 4.1¢ | 49.84 | $2.04 |
| 3.5¢ | 200 | $7.00 |
| 3.4¢ | 68.45 | $2.33 |
| 3.3¢ | 68.45 | $2.26 |
| 3.2¢ | 368.45 | $11.79 |
| 3.1¢ | 164.76 | $5.11 |
| 3¢ | 114.05 | $3.42 |
| 2.9¢ | 124.76 | $3.62 |
| 2.8¢ | 94.76 | $2.65 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8¢ | 228.75 | $10.98 |
| 4.9¢ | 250 | $12.25 |
| 5¢ | 364.82 | $18.24 |
| 5.1¢ | 236 | $12.04 |
| 5.2¢ | 50 | $2.60 |
| 5.4¢ | 39.37 | $2.13 |
| 5.5¢ | 552.25 | $30.37 |
| 5.8¢ | 601.91 | $34.91 |
| 5.9¢ | 122.84 | $7.25 |
| 6¢ | 212.76 | $12.77 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.