All markets
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?
5%chance
- Yes4.5%
Outcomes
- Yes5%
4.5¢ per share
- No96%
95.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.5¢Spread 1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4¢ | 202 | $8.08 |
| 3¢ | 461.5 | $13.84 |
| 2¢ | 2,933.44 | $58.67 |
| 1¢ | 5,778.22 | $57.78 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 357.69 | $17.88 |
| 6¢ | 1,800.43 | $108.03 |
| 7¢ | 1,311.7 | $91.82 |
| 8¢ | 395.86 | $31.67 |
| 9¢ | 288.69 | $25.98 |
| 10¢ | 142.41 | $14.24 |
| 15¢ | 300 | $45.00 |
| 28¢ | 59.2 | $16.58 |
| 29¢ | 291.63 | $84.57 |
| 34¢ | 8 | $2.72 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.