All markets
Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026?
12%chance
- Yes12%
Outcomes
- Yes12%
12.0¢ per share
- No88%
88.0¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 12¢Spread 4¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 40.59 | $4.06 |
| 9¢ | 48.54 | $4.37 |
| 8¢ | 17.7 | $1.42 |
| 7¢ | 292.22 | $20.46 |
| 6¢ | 105.32 | $6.32 |
| 5¢ | 67.51 | $3.38 |
| 3¢ | 258.76 | $7.76 |
| 2¢ | 468.75 | $9.38 |
| 1¢ | 1,907.68 | $19.08 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 14¢ | 198.54 | $27.80 |
| 15¢ | 175 | $26.25 |
| 16¢ | 60 | $9.60 |
| 81¢ | 526 | $426.06 |
| 82¢ | 11,111.11 | $9,111.11 |
| 87¢ | 19,230.76 | $16,730.76 |
| 91¢ | 27,777.77 | $25,277.77 |
| 95¢ | 11.89 | $11.30 |
| 96¢ | 75,000 | $72,000.00 |
| 98¢ | 105.81 | $103.69 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.