All markets
Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
16%chance
- Yes16.2%
Outcomes
- Yes16%
16.2¢ per share
- No84%
83.8¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 16.2¢Spread 10.6¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 10.9¢ | 20.12 | $2.19 |
| 10.8¢ | 118.51 | $12.80 |
| 7.3¢ | 5 | $0.37 |
| 7¢ | 13 | $0.91 |
| 6.9¢ | 20 | $1.38 |
| 6.3¢ | 5.66 | $0.36 |
| 6.2¢ | 30 | $1.86 |
| 6¢ | 548.26 | $32.90 |
| 4.2¢ | 107.87 | $4.53 |
| 4¢ | 25.54 | $1.02 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 21.5¢ | 20 | $4.30 |
| 32.3¢ | 10.33 | $3.34 |
| 32.4¢ | 65 | $21.06 |
| 96.8¢ | 20.57 | $19.91 |
| 96.9¢ | 40 | $38.76 |
| 97¢ | 153.18 | $148.58 |
| 98¢ | 100 | $98.00 |
| 98.9¢ | 6.23 | $6.16 |
| 99¢ | 100 | $99.00 |
| 99.4¢ | 83.33 | $82.83 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.