All markets
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
4%chance
- Yes3.4%
Outcomes
- Yes4%
3.7¢ per share
- No96%
96.3¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 3.4¢Spread 1.5¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2.6¢ | 68.97 | $1.79 |
| 2.2¢ | 46 | $1.01 |
| 2.1¢ | 133 | $2.79 |
| 2¢ | 957 | $19.14 |
| 1.1¢ | 810 | $8.91 |
| 1¢ | 1,250 | $12.50 |
| 0.4¢ | 72.81 | $0.29 |
| 0.3¢ | 210.53 | $0.63 |
| 0.2¢ | 548.49 | $1.10 |
| 0.1¢ | 714.51 | $0.71 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1¢ | 5.31 | $0.22 |
| 4.8¢ | 13.36 | $0.64 |
| 4.9¢ | 52.79 | $2.59 |
| 5¢ | 24.91 | $1.25 |
| 7¢ | 60.01 | $4.20 |
| 11¢ | 12 | $1.32 |
| 24¢ | 16.48 | $3.96 |
| 58.9¢ | 5 | $2.95 |
| 59¢ | 20 | $11.80 |
| 60.8¢ | 20 | $12.16 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".