All markets
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
26%chance
- Yes25.5%
Outcomes
- Yes26%
25.5¢ per share
- No75%
74.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 25.5¢Spread 15¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 18¢ | 51.11 | $9.20 |
| 14¢ | 5 | $0.70 |
| 13¢ | 60 | $7.80 |
| 12¢ | 275.36 | $33.04 |
| 8¢ | 31.12 | $2.49 |
| 7¢ | 34 | $2.38 |
| 6¢ | 58.32 | $3.50 |
| 5¢ | 441.4 | $22.07 |
| 4¢ | 1,768 | $70.72 |
| 3¢ | 805.11 | $24.15 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 33¢ | 50 | $16.50 |
| 71¢ | 10 | $7.10 |
| 75¢ | 8 | $6.00 |
| 78¢ | 20 | $15.60 |
| 80¢ | 30 | $24.00 |
| 92¢ | 6.71 | $6.17 |
| 93¢ | 60 | $55.80 |
| 96¢ | 10 | $9.60 |
| 97¢ | 10.44 | $10.13 |
| 98¢ | 25 | $24.50 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".