Economy

175 events

Fed Decision in October?
- No change85%
- 25 bps increase16%
$42.5M Vol.monthly

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Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA69%
Apple30%

$8.5M Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%
2 (50 bps)<1%

$54.2M Vol.

$380.6K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike69%
Hike–Pause–Pause12%

$364.9K Vol.daily

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%28%
Below 4.6%11%

$389.1K Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase79%
No change19%

$3.5M Vol.monthly

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

Decrease50%
No Change47%

$82.3K Vol.annual

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change95%
25 bps increase6%

$604.4K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%40%
5.5%22%

$1.0M Vol.weekly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%35%
Below 4.45%17%

$106.4K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%45%
Below 5.15%43%

$103.8K Vol.

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change89%
25 bps increase11%

$136.4K Vol.annual

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple53%
NVIDIA33%

$44.1K Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change59%
25 bps increase36%

$507.3K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple80%
NVIDIA16%

$49.4K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%55%
5.80%28%

$233.8K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%72%
5.25%28%

$118.2K Vol.

October Inflation US - Annual

3.7%69%
3.9%13%

$8.9K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.43%84%
Below 5.40%56%

$20.0K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.09%84%
Below 5.05%68%

$20.9K Vol.weekly

Bank of England decision in December?

No change60%
25 bps increase32%

$4.8K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K51%
$403K - $407K22%

$22.8K Vol.monthly

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting51%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

33%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet72%
Microsoft19%

$71.6K Vol.monthly

October Inflation US - Monthly

0.3%31%
0.2%25%

$5.9K Vol.monthly

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.3%67%
0.4%19%

$17.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change90%
Decrease8%

$82.4K Vol.annual

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet65%
Microsoft30%

$77.9K Vol.monthly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase93%
No change7%

$314.8K Vol.annual

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.1%45%
3.0%31%

$17.8K Vol.monthly

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.6–0.7%42%
0.4–0.5%30%

$38.6K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause41%
Pause-Hike-Hike26%

$47.8K Vol.daily

Price of Dozen Eggs in October?

$2.20 to $2.3041%
$2.10 to $2.2025%

$3.0K Vol.monthly

Core CPI YoY - October 2026

2.6%65%
2.5%24%

$3.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase72%
No change25%

$15.8K Vol.annual

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease84%
No Change13%

$62.1K Vol.annual

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%86%
↑ 4.5%19%

$1.9M Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%51%
5.50-5.99%21%

$165.0K Vol.

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%72%
2.5–3.0%16%

$57.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$222.3K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$445K - $458K26%
$458K - $471K21%

$13.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change79%
25 bps decrease17%

$57.8K Vol.annual

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%73%
4.6-4.9%16%

$69.8K Vol.monthly

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

68%chance

$41.6K Vol.11 days left

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.89%75%
Below 4.86%70%

$13.0K Vol.

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change53%
25 bps hike46%

$34.0K Vol.annual

Meta headcount above __ in Q3?

6600078%
6800071%

$2.9K Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase80%
No change16%

$34.4K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M22%
$1.125M - $1.146M17%

$14.2K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%16%
5.38%13%

$30.6K Vol.weekly

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%35%
3.0-3.5%32%

$54.7K Vol.annual

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

3.0%+38%
2.7% to 2.9%37%

$56.7K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T43%
$1.00-$1.10T34%

$13.1K Vol.monthly

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%90%
Below 4.60%70%

$15.0K Vol.

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%72%
5.00%52%

$19.1K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$39.1K Vol.monthly

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines33%
Anduril15%

$216.0K Vol.

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%61%
4.89%48%

$12.8K Vol.

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%40%
0.2 to 0.3%16%

$31.6K Vol.monthly

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$104.5K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.14%42%
5.11%30%

$17.6K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase34%
Fuel duty increase28%

$13.3K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$35.6K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K39%
$397K - $407K23%

$21.5K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K60%
$519K - $521K12%

$19.0K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

<-0.3%34%
0.0% to 0.2%24%

$37.3K Vol.annual

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Citigroup3%
RBC3%

$83.4K Vol.monthly

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.929%
52.0 to 52.920%

$12.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%73%
Below 4.70%63%

$8.2K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%53%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$114.2K Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease54%
50+ bps decrease22%

$24.8K Vol.annual

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%38%
3.5-3.9%32%

$63.8K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%96%
2.0-2.4%3%

$58.5K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$94.4K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$323K - $327K38%
$313K - $318K21%

$15.3K Vol.monthly

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+25%
<6.8M24%

$15.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change60%
25 bps decrease29%

$12.4K Vol.annual

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3116%
November 307%

$10.7K Vol.

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%48%
0-1.0%45%

$58.2K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M28%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$17.7K Vol.monthly

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%78%
4.7-5.0%12%

$92.7K Vol.

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K27%
$788K - $809K21%

$11.7K Vol.monthly

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%51%
1.2-1.5%30%

$70.5K Vol.annual

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%27%
0.0%–0.8%23%

$43.5K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+53%
2.7-2.8M23%

$47.1K Vol.monthly

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%32%

$7.7K Vol.monthly

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%63%
↓ 6.50%14%

$99.0K Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

$245.4K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change81%
25 bps increase18%

$181.9K Vol.annual

October Inflation China - Annual

0.7% to 0.8%28%
0.9% to 1.0%25%

$294.1 Vol.monthly

Core CPI MoM - October 2026

0.2%37%
0.3%36%

$1.7K Vol.monthly

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
7.0%3%

$564.1K Vol.

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3077%
October 3168%

$6.2K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.6K Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

3%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.3K Vol.2 months left

People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?

No Change92%
Decrease9%

$8.9K Vol.monthly

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↓ $4.3046%
↓ $4.2044%

$1.3K Vol.monthly

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+97%
0.75% to 1.49%2%

$102.8K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.76%23%
5.85%19%

$20.0K Vol.

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase73%
No Change14%

$11.4K Vol.monthly

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

55%chance

$18.3K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

12%chance

$31.0K Vol.2 months left

Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?

$15.0K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M25%

$117.1K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase22%

$10.3K Vol.annual

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.949%
43.0 to 45.945%

$26.6K Vol.monthly

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+45%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.4K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase61%
No change37%

$39.0K Vol.annual

How many jobs added in October?

100k+31%
75k to 100k18%

$21.7K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M53%
270M6%

$32.8K Vol.monthly

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.923%
54.0 to 54.918%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

3.1%+92%
2.2–2.4%3%

$119.2K Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change93%
25 bps increase4%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.4K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in December?

No change51%
25 bps increase19%

$47.3 Vol.annual

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

42%chance

$4.1K Vol.15 days left

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%59%
3.00% to 3.49%13%

$84.8K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

45%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

Central Bank of Colombia decision in October

No change68%
25 bps increase24%

$37.0K Vol.annual

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$11.0K Vol.1 year left

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

68%chance

$27.7K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change97%
25 bps hike3%

$38.7K Vol.annual

2026 World GDP Growth

3.0%30%
3.1%29%

$76.4K Vol.

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%62%
3.0–3.4%22%

$139.5K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?

$468K - $473K42%
<$458K39%

$17.4 Vol.monthly

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%89%
0-1%6%

$111.8K Vol.

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

No Change71%
25 bps decrease38%

$40.6 Vol.annual

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%66%
25-29.9%30%

$80.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change51%
25 bps increase47%

$41.4K Vol.annual

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

2%chance

$11.9K Vol.2 months left

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

3%chance

$33.8K Vol.3 months left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3116%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$718.0K Vol.

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1550.00–1599.9947%
1600.00+45%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

UK Recession in 2026?

7%chance

$15.6K Vol.6 months left

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%96%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

December 3116%
October 3114%

$15.3K Vol.

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

65%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change78%
25 bps increase22%

$37.2K Vol.

Gas prices on October 16?

$4.3500+51%
<$4.310050%

$0.0 Vol.daily

Central Bank of Chile decision in December

No change60%
25 bps decrease37%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$40.0K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Dallas Metro area be on December 31?

$383K - $387K41%
$379K - $383K32%

$8.3 Vol.monthly

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

12%chance

$2.1K Vol.15 days left

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

28%chance

$1.1K Vol.1 year left

US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%chance

$0.0 Vol.2 months left

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

5%chance

$823.5 Vol.2 months left

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%31%

$62.1K Vol.annual

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

2%chance

$30.3K Vol.2 months left

USMCA extended in 2026?

9%chance

$11.5K Vol.2 months left

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

8%chance

$8.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?

50%chance

$28.9 Vol.2 months left

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

9%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

$7.000+64%
$9.000+30%

$23.0K Vol.

SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?

17%chance

$52.6K Vol.2 months left

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

800–900B45%
700–800B21%

$25.0K Vol.

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

7%chance

$92.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

9%chance

$9.7K Vol.4 months left

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3%chance

$5.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.2m56%
1.3m14%

$188.0K Vol.

ECB rate cut in 2026?

4%chance

$36.1K Vol.2 months left

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?

4%chance

$10.9K Vol.2 months left

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

7%chance

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

9%chance

$13.8K Vol.2 months left

US defaults on debt by 2027?

2%chance

$18.5K Vol.2 months left

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

$41 trillion57%
$42 trillion4%

$19.3K Vol.

Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

8%chance

$3.6K Vol.4 months left

Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?

9%chance

$2.5K Vol.2 months left

Economy

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

US recession by end of 2027?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

UK Recession in 2026?

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?