Economy

143 events

Fed Decision in October?
- No change72%
- 25 bps increase28%
$42.1M Vol.monthly

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Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA69%
Apple30%

$8.5M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase79%
No change19%

$3.5M Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)<1%

$54.2M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA82%
Apple18%

$371.0K Vol.monthly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

87%chance

$799.7K Vol.55 days left

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change93%
25 bps increase7%

$603.8K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%48%
5.5%22%

$1.0M Vol.weekly

Fed Decision in January?

No change57%
25 bps increase36%

$505.3K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%45%
Below 5.15%43%

$103.2K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%35%
Below 4.45%19%

$106.3K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%28%
Below 4.6%11%

$371.6K Vol.

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike61%
Hike–Hike–Hike20%

$349.2K Vol.daily

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple75%
NVIDIA19%

$48.3K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change92%
25 bps increase5%

$134.9K Vol.annual

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple52%
NVIDIA33%

$43.6K Vol.monthly

US recession by end of 2026?

9%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%75%
5.25%27%

$118.0K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%59%
5.80%29%

$232.5K Vol.

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change85%
Decrease14%

$72.6K Vol.annual

October Inflation US - Annual

3.7%69%
3.9%14%

$8.9K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$222.3K Vol.annual

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.52%>99%
Below 5.49%>99%

$19.9K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.15%>99%
Below 5.12%>99%

$20.9K Vol.weekly

October Inflation US - Monthly

0.3%32%
0.2%30%

$5.9K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K52%
$403K - $407K24%

$22.8K Vol.monthly

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting51%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

32%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.3%63%
0.2%19%

$16.9K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change81%
25 bps increase18%

$181.9K Vol.annual

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change91%
Decrease8%

$82.3K Vol.annual

Bank of England decision in December?

No change57%
25 bps increase30%

$3.2K Vol.annual

Core CPI YoY - October 2026

2.6%68%
2.7%15%

$3.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase93%
No change7%

$314.8K Vol.annual

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet62%
Microsoft33%

$76.6K Vol.monthly

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%34%
3.0-3.5%31%

$54.6K Vol.annual

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%71%
2.5–3.0%16%

$57.3K Vol.monthly

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.1%40%
3.0%31%

$17.6K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause41%
Pause-Hike-Hike25%

$47.8K Vol.daily

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease84%
No Change13%

$62.1K Vol.annual

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change79%
25 bps decrease17%

$57.8K Vol.annual

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%50%
5.50-5.99%20%

$165.0K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.50%16%
5.35%15%

$30.5K Vol.weekly

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.6–0.7%39%
0.4–0.5%27%

$38.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase71%
No change24%

$15.6K Vol.annual

Meta headcount above __ in Q3?

6600078%
6800071%

$2.9K Vol.

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

71%chance

$41.5K Vol.11 days left

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%81%
↑ 4.5%21%

$1.9M Vol.

Core CPI MoM - October 2026

0.2%39%
0.3%38%

$1.7K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%>99%
Below 4.92%95%

$12.9K Vol.

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%74%
4.6-4.9%14%

$69.5K Vol.monthly

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%43%
0.2 to 0.3%18%

$31.5K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M42%
$1.125M - $1.146M19%

$13.9K Vol.monthly

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change53%
25 bps hike45%

$33.9K Vol.annual

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

3.0%+42%
2.7% to 2.9%28%

$56.7K Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase80%
No change16%

$34.4K Vol.annual

Price of Dozen Eggs in October?

$2.20 to $2.3032%
$2.10 to $2.2031%

$1.7K Vol.monthly

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T44%
$1.00-$1.10T28%

$13.1K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%74%
4.92%48%

$12.8K Vol.

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K34%
$397K - $407K25%

$21.3K Vol.monthly

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

55.0 to 55.922%
53.0 to 53.921%

$12.5K Vol.monthly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%38%
3.5-3.9%36%

$63.7K Vol.monthly

What will be in the UK Budget?

Fuel duty increase29%
CGT increase29%

$12.6K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%85%
Below 4.70%70%

$7.8K Vol.

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%94%
2.0-2.4%7%

$58.5K Vol.

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase70%
50+ bps increase11%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$35.4K Vol.monthly

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander5%
Citigroup3%

$83.1K Vol.monthly

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%53%
1.1 – 1.5%25%

$114.1K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M28%
3.0 - 3.5M23%

$117.0K Vol.monthly

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.7K Vol.

Central Bank of Colombia decision in October

No change65%
25 bps increase25%

$37.0K Vol.annual

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%25%
-0.3% to -0.1%23%

$37.0K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase23%

$10.3K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K26%
$788K - $809K22%

$11.7K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$323K - $327K35%
$313K - $318K20%

$15.2K Vol.monthly

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.8K Vol.

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%51%
1.2-1.5%27%

$70.5K Vol.annual

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%48%
0-1.0%47%

$58.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K27%
$445K - $458K26%

$11.4K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$94.1K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K45%
$503K - $507K18%

$18.6K Vol.monthly

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

3%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%24%
0.0%–0.8%23%

$43.4K Vol.annual

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.6K Vol.

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0055%
1600.00–1699.9935%

$22.7K Vol.monthly

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3117%
November 307%

$10.5K Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease53%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.4K Vol.annual

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.76%21%
5.70%14%

$20.0K Vol.

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+96%
0.75% to 1.49%1%

$102.8K Vol.

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%90%
0-1%7%

$111.8K Vol.

People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$8.7K Vol.monthly

2026 World GDP Growth

3.0%30%
3.1%29%

$76.4K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase61%
No change38%

$39.0K Vol.annual

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change97%
25 bps hike3%

$38.7K Vol.annual

Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?

$15.0K Vol.

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change79%
25 bps increase22%

$37.2K Vol.

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%58%
3.00% to 3.49%13%

$84.7K Vol.

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
5.5%2%

$563.8K Vol.

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%60%
3.0–3.4%22%

$139.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change53%
25 bps increase46%

$41.4K Vol.annual

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.925%
53.0 to 53.923%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3079%
October 3167%

$6.1K Vol.

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

69%chance

$27.7K Vol.2 months left

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+45%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.4K Vol.annual

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↑ $4.5050%
↓ $4.3048%

$1.2K Vol.monthly

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.950%
43.0 to 45.944%

$26.5K Vol.monthly

How many jobs added in October?

100k+31%
50k to 75k17%

$21.7K Vol.monthly

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%34%

$62.1K Vol.annual

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.4K Vol.

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M28%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$17.4K Vol.monthly

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%17%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change93%
25 bps increase5%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M62%
270M6%

$32.8K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$40.0K Vol.monthly

$79.9K Vol.monthly

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

7%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.9K Vol.2 months left

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

42%chance

$2.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

66%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

No Change72%
25 bps decrease30%

$40.6 Vol.annual

JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

December 3116%
October 3110%

$15.3K Vol.

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?

4%chance

$10.9K Vol.2 months left

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$718.0K Vol.

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

53%chance

$18.1K Vol.2 months left

Central Bank of Chile decision in December

No change46%
25 bps increase46%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Dallas Metro area be on December 31?

$383K - $387K40%
$387K - $391K32%

$8.3 Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?

$468K - $473K42%
<$458K41%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

14%chance

$2.1K Vol.16 days left

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

28%chance

$1.1K Vol.1 year left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%chance

$0.0 Vol.2 months left

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

5%chance

$823.5 Vol.2 months left

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

2%chance

$30.3K Vol.2 months left

USMCA extended in 2026?

9%chance

$11.5K Vol.2 months left

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

8%chance

$8.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?

50%chance

$28.9 Vol.2 months left

Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?

December 31, 202755%
June 30, 202745%

$636.2 Vol.

Japan recession in 2026?