Economy

90 events

Fed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase34%
$38.9M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase80%
No change19%

$3.4M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change56%
25 bps increase43%

$479.8K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA74%
Apple26%

$8.3M Vol.monthly

$54.1M Vol.

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA83%
Apple15%

$326.4K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike58%
Hike–Hike–Hike19%

$324.6K Vol.daily

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

<1%chance

$2.7K Vol.10 hours left

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$577.5K Vol.annual

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$213.4K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change74%
25 bps increase27%

$121.2K Vol.annual

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause45%
Pause-Hike-Hike14%

$41.5K Vol.daily

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%66%
5.5%40%

$981.0K Vol.weekly

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease87%
No Change9%

$59.3K Vol.annual

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%67%
5.80%54%

$218.7K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change77%
25 bps increase21%

$178.6K Vol.annual

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

72%chance

$39.3K Vol.12 days left

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$311.4K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K36%
$397K - $407K28%

$20.5K Vol.monthly

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet86%
Microsoft12%

$61.7K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%89%
5.25%47%

$105.4K Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet60%
Microsoft31%

$73.8K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple59%
NVIDIA15%

$32.5K Vol.monthly

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%36%
3.0-3.5%33%

$51.7K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+53%
2.7-2.8M20%

$46.5K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%25%
-0.3% to -0.1%21%

$36.6K Vol.annual

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%20%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%16%
Below 4.45%7%

$87.2K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%49%
5.50-5.99%21%

$162.9K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%62%
5.35%47%

$27.8K Vol.weekly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change78%
25 bps increase22%

$37.2K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.6K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.1K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%47%
Below 5.15%41%

$15.2K Vol.weekly

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+35%
5.5%18%

$30.4K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.00%66%
4.90%62%

$17.8K Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%82%
↑ 4.5%25%

$1.9M Vol.

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%71%
4.6-4.9%15%

$67.3K Vol.monthly

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3074%
October 3167%

$5.9K Vol.

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.5K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$11.7K Vol.

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%51%
0.2–0.3%23%

$35.2K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple68%
NVIDIA15%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase43%

$41.3K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K39%
$519K - $521K19%

$18.3K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase25%

$9.7K Vol.annual

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%73%
Below 5.49%52%

$13.7K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T39%
$1.00-$1.10T34%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

51.0 to 51.924%
54.0 to 54.924%

$11.7K Vol.monthly

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%45%
0.2 to 0.3%25%

$28.1K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%79%
2.0-2.4%20%

$57.6K Vol.

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+97%
<0.75%<1%

$102.0K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$34.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change94%
Decrease7%

$60.7K Vol.annual

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines39%
Anduril18%

$215.0K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%55%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.6K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%52%
5.08%46%

$15.7K Vol.

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%46%
3.0%+24%

$55.4K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%61%
Below 4.70%60%

$6.2K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%59%
Below 4.92%51%

$10.6K Vol.

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K31%
$445K - $458K20%

$10.6K Vol.monthly

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%84%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.8K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.4K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change76%
25 bps decrease21%

$53.9K Vol.annual

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%48%
0-1.0%45%

$57.8K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%76%
4.92%69%

$11.0K Vol.

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8K Vol.2 months left

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%72%
↓ 6.50%13%

$98.7K Vol.

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M26%
$1.083M - $1.104M21%

$12.5K Vol.monthly

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

68%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase75%
No change19%

$33.3K Vol.annual

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+32%
<6.8M20%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change44%

$93.8K Vol.annual

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%57%
4.00% to 4.49%14%

$84.5K Vol.

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.0%–0.8%24%
0.8%–1.6%24%

$43.2K Vol.annual

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%76%
Below 4.60%54%

$12.8K Vol.

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander4%
RBC3%

$82.5K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.73%48%
5.70%45%

$19.5K Vol.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

43.0 to 45.947%
46.0 to 48.944%

$26.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.3K Vol.monthly

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.0%33%
3.1%26%

$14.5K Vol.monthly