Economy

80 events

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase20%
$35.0M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change22%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA81%
Apple16%

$8.2M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase30%

$418.6K Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%44%
3.7%38%

$243.4K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$576.1K Vol.annual

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA94%
Apple5%

$290.3K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%53%
0.5%28%

$84.2K Vol.monthly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%chance

$657.7K Vol.57 days left

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%35%
Below 5.15%26%

$69.0K Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet80%
Microsoft21%

$57.1K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause20%

$294.0K Vol.daily

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%52%
0.3%30%

$64.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease90%
No Change5%

$56.9K Vol.annual

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple90%
NVIDIA9%

$28.7K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change82%
25 bps increase18%

$114.0K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$172.7K Vol.annual

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease12%

$77.9K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
2.0 - 2.5M25%

$115.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$201.2K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%61%
5.5%33%

$972.1K Vol.weekly

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K42%
$407K - $417K19%

$18.8K Vol.monthly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%39%
3.5-3.9%32%

$62.4K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

September Inflation China - Annual

0.9% to 1.0%>99%
0.7% to 0.8%<1%

$44.0K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+57%
2.6-2.7M19%

$44.9K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%34%
-0.3% to -0.1%26%

$35.7K Vol.annual

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause59%
Pause-Hike-Hike12%

$33.4K Vol.daily

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.1K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change63%
25 bps decrease31%

$10.8K Vol.annual

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%47%
5.50-5.99%24%

$162.5K Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M62%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%52%
5.35%50%

$25.9K Vol.weekly

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

52%chance

$17.5K Vol.2 months left

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%72%
4.6-4.9%14%

$67.3K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K31%
$403K - $407K19%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

$30.7K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%69%
Below 5.15%59%

$13.7K Vol.weekly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$306.2K Vol.annual

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3073%
October 3167%

$5.9K Vol.

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander5%
RBC3%

$82.5K Vol.monthly

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.5K Vol.

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change74%
25 bps increase24%

$35.9K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$11.7K Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%54%
5.00%45%

$16.1K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase43%

$41.2K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase25%

$9.7K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K41%
$519K - $521K15%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%74%
Below 5.52%61%

$13.7K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T38%
$1.00-$1.10T35%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.924%
53.0 to 53.922%

$11.6K Vol.monthly

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%44%
2.5%35%

$48.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change93%
Decrease7%

$60.6K Vol.annual

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%78%
2.0-2.4%20%

$57.6K Vol.

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+97%
3.75% to 4.49%<1%

$102.0K Vol.

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%40%
0.2–0.3%31%

$34.9K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%66%
5.80%45%

$211.2K Vol.

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%46%
3.0%+25%

$55.4K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%53%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.6K Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%80%
↑ 4.5%12%

$1.9M Vol.

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8K Vol.2 months left

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3%47%
0.0 to 0.1%32%

$27.9K Vol.monthly

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%30%
0.0%–0.8%24%

$43.2K Vol.annual

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines46%
Anduril21%

$214.9K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change76%
25 bps decrease20%

$53.9K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K31%
$445K - $458K20%

$10.6K Vol.monthly

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3056%
$2.10 to $2.2028%

$33.4K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%64%
5.08%46%

$15.6K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.4K Vol.

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%84%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.8K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%56%
Below 4.86%56%

$10.5K Vol.

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%72%
↓ 6.50%13%

$98.7K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.70%49%
5.73%39%

$19.4K Vol.