Economy

60 events

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase19%
$34.9M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.7M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase30%

$418.1K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA78%
Apple16%

$8.1M Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%43%
3.7%39%

$231.9K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$576.0K Vol.annual

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA94%
Apple5%

$290.2K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%61%
5.5%33%

$972.0K Vol.weekly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%35%
Below 5.15%26%

$68.9K Vol.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

81%chance

$655.9K Vol.57 days left

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet78%
Microsoft21%

$57.1K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause20%

$293.3K Vol.daily

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple88%
NVIDIA9%

$28.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$171.7K Vol.annual

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%51%
0.3%31%

$62.5K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M27%

$115.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$77.9K Vol.annual

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%49%
0.5%34%

$76.2K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K41%
$407K - $417K19%

$18.3K Vol.monthly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%38%
3.5-3.9%33%

$62.3K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.7K Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps decrease5%

$10.2K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%85%
5.25%39%

$101.1K Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause59%
Pause-Hike-Hike12%

$33.4K Vol.daily

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%65%
5.80%45%

$211.2K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$199.5K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%60%
5.35%51%

$25.8K Vol.weekly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change62%
25 bps decrease32%

$10.6K Vol.annual

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%47%
4.50-4.99%25%

$162.4K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+51%
2.7-2.8M20%

$43.1K Vol.monthly

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.3K Vol.

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

52%chance

$17.5K Vol.2 months left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M67%
270M7%

$32.6K Vol.monthly

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%32%
-0.3% to -0.1%26%

$33.9K Vol.annual

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%70%
4.6-4.9%14%

$67.2K Vol.monthly

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%44%
2.5%35%

$48.7K Vol.monthly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change74%
25 bps increase23%

$35.8K Vol.

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%54%
5.10%41%

$16.1K Vol.

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%95%
5.0–6.0%3%

$931.3K Vol.

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3056%
$2.10 to $2.2022%

$33.3K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple66%
NVIDIA16%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3073%
October 3167%

$5.8K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%54%
5.08%49%

$15.4K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%75%
Below 5.49%52%

$13.7K Vol.

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

RBC3%
HSBC3%

$82.3K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%65%
Below 5.15%45%

$13.4K Vol.weekly

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase23%

$11.2K Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase43%

$41.2K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change73%
25 bps increase22%

$9.7K Vol.annual

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%76%
4.89%70%

$10.6K Vol.

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%42%
0.2–0.3%23%

$34.8K Vol.monthly

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.2K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K40%
$519K - $521K21%

$18.1K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%14%
Below 4.45%10%

$84.7K Vol.

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change94%
Decrease7%

$60.6K Vol.annual