Economy

184 events

Fed Decision in October?
- No change85%
- 25 bps increase14%
$42.6M Vol.monthly

Earn rewards by placing limit orders near the midpoint. Learn more.Max Spread ±4.5¢Min Shares 50

Attract more liquidity by sponsoring rewards for this market.Add Rewards

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA69%
Apple29%

$8.5M Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)<1%

$54.2M Vol.

$385.9K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike69%
Hike–Pause–Pause16%

$368.3K Vol.daily

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%28%
Below 4.6%11%

$389.1K Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase79%
No change19%

$3.5M Vol.monthly

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change54%
Decrease47%

$86.3K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%38%
5.5%29%

$1.0M Vol.weekly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change95%
25 bps increase6%

$604.4K Vol.annual

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%35%
Below 4.45%17%

$106.4K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%45%
Below 5.15%43%

$103.9K Vol.

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change89%
25 bps increase11%

$136.4K Vol.annual

Fed Decision in January?

No change59%
25 bps increase36%

$507.3K Vol.monthly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change90%
25 bps increase9%

$48.0K Vol.

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple79%
NVIDIA13%

$50.3K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%55%
5.80%28%

$233.8K Vol.

October Inflation US - Annual

3.7%88%
3.8%9%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%72%
5.25%32%

$118.2K Vol.

October Inflation US - Monthly

0.3%37%
0.2%23%

$9.6K Vol.monthly

Price of Dozen Eggs in October?

$2.20 to $2.3034%
$2.10 to $2.2023%

$6.4K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K45%
$403K - $407K20%

$24.2K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple53%
NVIDIA34%

$44.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M40%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$22.8K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$445K - $458K26%
$458K - $471K19%

$16.3K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.43%85%
Below 5.40%61%

$20.2K Vol.

Bank of England decision in December?

No change60%
25 bps increase33%

$4.8K Vol.annual

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

83%chance

$44.5K Vol.11 days left

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

32%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet72%
Microsoft19%

$71.8K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.09%86%
Below 5.05%70%

$21.2K Vol.weekly

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.3%64%
0.4%16%

$18.1K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change90%
Decrease8%

$82.9K Vol.annual

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet65%
Microsoft31%

$78.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase93%
No change7%

$314.8K Vol.annual

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause56%
Pause-Hike-Hike19%

$49.2K Vol.daily

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting51%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.1%45%
3.0%30%

$18.0K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K46%
$397K - $407K25%

$23.5K Vol.monthly

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.6–0.7%42%
0.4–0.5%30%

$38.6K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease84%
No Change13%

$62.1K Vol.annual

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%83%
↑ 4.5%20%

$1.9M Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase72%
No change26%

$15.8K Vol.annual

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%50%
5.50-5.99%19%

$165.0K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$222.4K Vol.annual

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change77%
25 bps decrease18%

$58.2K Vol.annual

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%72%
2.5–3.0%14%

$57.4K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%74%
4.6-4.9%15%

$69.8K Vol.monthly

Bank of Mexico Decision in December?

No change78%
25 bps increase10%

$1.6K Vol.annual

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change53%
25 bps hike46%

$34.2K Vol.annual

Core CPI YoY - October 2026

2.6%65%
2.5%24%

$3.0K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.89%79%
Below 4.86%72%

$13.1K Vol.

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%34%
3.0-3.5%32%

$55.2K Vol.annual

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase80%
No change16%

$34.4K Vol.annual

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.922%
54.0 to 54.922%

$13.4K Vol.monthly

October Inflation China - Annual

0.7% to 0.8%28%
0.9% to 1.0%25%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M25%
$1.083M - $1.104M18%

$14.2K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K27%
$788K - $809K20%

$12.4K Vol.monthly

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

3.0%+38%
2.7% to 2.9%32%

$56.7K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T43%
$1.00-$1.10T33%

$13.1K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%58%
4.92%50%

$13.0K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%72%
Below 4.70%69%

$8.6K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines34%
Anduril14%

$216.1K Vol.

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%41%
0.2 to 0.3%28%

$31.8K Vol.monthly

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%32%

$8.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%90%
Below 4.60%67%

$15.5K Vol.

Meta headcount above __ in Q3?

6600078%
6800071%

$2.9K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M28%
2.0 - 2.5M25%

$117.8K Vol.monthly

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$104.5K Vol.

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3116%
November 307%

$11.0K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase36%
Fuel duty increase28%

$13.3K Vol.

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K60%
$503K - $507K12%

$19.0K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%66%
5.00%52%

$19.2K Vol.

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Citigroup3%
RBC3%

$83.4K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%35%
5.20%23%

$17.7K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$35.6K Vol.monthly

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%56%
1.1 – 1.5%25%

$114.6K Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease54%
50+ bps decrease23%

$24.8K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%15%
5.38%13%

$30.6K Vol.weekly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase53%
No change43%

$94.4K Vol.annual

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%96%
2.0-2.4%3%

$58.5K Vol.

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$323K - $327K38%
$327K+21%

$15.3K Vol.monthly

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%25%
0.0%–0.8%23%

$43.8K Vol.annual

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%38%
3.5-3.9%29%

$64.1K Vol.monthly

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%78%
4.7-5.0%12%

$92.7K Vol.

Central Bank of Colombia decision in October

No change67%
25 bps increase24%

$37.3K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+51%
2.7-2.8M19%

$47.1K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

<-0.3%34%
0.0% to 0.2%26%

$37.3K Vol.annual

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%60%
↓ 6.50%16%

$99.0K Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

$245.4K Vol.2 months left

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

<6.8M27%
7.4M+25%

$15.0K Vol.monthly

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
7.0%3%

$564.1K Vol.

Core CPI MoM - October 2026

0.2%37%
0.3%37%

$1.7K Vol.monthly

PPI YoY - October 2026

6.2%31%
6.8%+28%

$260.0 Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase75%
No Change13%

$11.6K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change81%
25 bps increase19%

$182.0K Vol.annual

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%60%
3.00% to 3.49%12%

$84.9K Vol.

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.3K Vol.2 months left

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3072%
October 3167%

$6.2K Vol.

People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?

No Change92%
Decrease9%

$8.9K Vol.monthly

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↓ $4.3048%
↓ $4.2044%

$1.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change60%
25 bps decrease29%

$12.4K Vol.annual

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

3%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+98%
3.75% to 4.49%<1%

$102.8K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.76%25%
5.85%16%

$20.0K Vol.

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%31%

$62.2K Vol.annual

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

3.1%+92%
2.2–2.4%3%

$119.3K Vol.

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

56%chance

$18.3K Vol.2 months left

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.948%
43.0 to 45.945%

$26.6K Vol.monthly

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

12%chance

$31.0K Vol.2 months left

Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?

$15.0K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.6K Vol.

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+45%
1.0-1.2%41%

$63.4K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change71%
25 bps increase21%

$10.3K Vol.annual

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%48%
0-1.0%45%

$58.2K Vol.monthly

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%61%
3.0–3.4%22%

$139.6K Vol.monthly

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%85%
2.5-2.9%8%

$76.3K Vol.

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%51%
1.2-1.5%29%

$70.5K Vol.annual

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$39.1K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase61%
No change37%

$39.0K Vol.annual

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.4K Vol.

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.923%
54.0 to 54.922%

$14.1K Vol.monthly

2026 World GDP Growth

3.0%30%
3.1%29%

$76.5K Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M54%
270M6%

$32.8K Vol.monthly

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change93%
25 bps increase5%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

50%chance

$4.1K Vol.15 days left

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

45%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$40.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

68%chance

$27.7K Vol.2 months left

Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?

31%chance

$23.8 Vol.11 days left

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change96%
25 bps hike3%

$38.7K Vol.annual

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

7%chance

$92.1K Vol.2 months left

What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?

$458K - $463K43%
$463K - $468K41%

$17.4 Vol.monthly

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%96%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

No Change73%
50+ bps increase38%

$40.6 Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change52%
25 bps increase47%

$41.4K Vol.annual

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%66%
25-29.9%30%

$80.0K Vol.monthly

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

2%chance

$11.9K Vol.2 months left

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

3%chance

$33.8K Vol.3 months left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3116%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0056%
1600.00–1699.9935%

$22.7K Vol.monthly

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$718.0K Vol.

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1550.00–1599.9947%
1600.00+46%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

December 3117%
October 3111%

$15.3K Vol.

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

66%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$11.0K Vol.1 year left

Gas prices on October 16?

$4.3200-4.329936%
$4.3300-4.339936%

$0.0 Vol.daily

Central Bank of Chile decision in December

No change60%
50+ bps decrease38%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

How many jobs added in October?

100k+31%
75k to 100k18%

$21.7K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Dallas Metro area be on December 31?

$383K - $387K42%
$379K - $383K40%

$8.3 Vol.monthly

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

12%chance

$2.1K Vol.15 days left

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

27%chance

$1.1K Vol.1 year left

US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%chance

$0.0 Vol.2 months left

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

5%chance

$823.5 Vol.2 months left

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

2%chance

$30.3K Vol.2 months left

USMCA extended in 2026?

9%chance

$11.5K Vol.2 months left

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

8%chance

$8.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?

50%chance

$28.9 Vol.2 months left

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

9%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?

December 31, 202760%
June 30, 202749%

$636.2 Vol.

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

2%chance

$42.4K Vol.2 months left

Japan recession in 2026?

5%chance

$4.3K Vol.6 months left

UK Recession in 2026?

6%chance

$15.6K Vol.6 months left

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

$7.000+63%
$9.000+30%

$23.0K Vol.

SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?

17%chance

$52.6K Vol.2 months left

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

800–900B43%
700–800B21%

$25.0K Vol.

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

3%chance

$94.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

8%chance

$9.7K Vol.4 months left

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

12%chance

$12.6K Vol.2 months left

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%89%
0-1%7%

$111.8K Vol.

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3%chance

$5.8K Vol.2 months left

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

25%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.2m57%
1.3m14%

$188.0K Vol.

ECB rate cut in 2026?

4%chance

$36.1K Vol.2 months left

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?

4%chance

$10.9K Vol.2 months left

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%17%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Fed abolished before 2027?

1%chance

$8.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?

8%chance

$17.2K Vol.2 months left

US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?

3%chance

$19.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Argentina dollarize by...?

3%chance

$19.9K Vol.2 months left

Economy

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

US recession by end of 2026?

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?